One-third of Lebanese would like to emigrate, 71 percent cite financial reasons

By T.K. Maloy

BEIRUT — Given the chance, over one-third of Lebanon’s citizens would leave their homeland, citing financial reasons and quality of life.

This statistic was part a recent survey by the Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies where 33 percent of Lebanese citizens polled said they would like to emigrate to another country, according to a recent Byblos Bank’s Weekly Economic Report.

Also, according to the Arab Center’s poll, 71 percent of Lebanese respondents cited the desire to improve their financial situation as the main reason for wanting to emigrate, while 24 percent of respondents want to emigrate because of the unstable security situation in the Levant.

The percentage of participants who are willing to emigrate from Lebanon was the second highest among the 14 Arab economies covered in the survey, with 54 percent of Sudanese wanting to leave their troubled country.

In comparison, nearly quarter of Arab populations would rather be somewhere else as well, than where they are. The center’s study reported that 22 percent of respondents in the Arab region said they would like to emigrate from their respective countries.

Further, 15 percent of Lebanese who would like to emigrate cited Canada as their preferred destination, 14 percent named the United States and 12 percent chose Europe in general, while 11 percent specified France and 8 percent named Germany. Also, 14 percent of Lebanese who desire to leave did not specify their emigration destination.

In the Arab world, 16 percent of respondents named Europe as their main emigration destination, 12 percent cited Saudi Arabia, 10 percent chose the United States, 9 percent selected France and 7 percent  specified each of the UAE and Canada. Also, 11 percent of respondents in the region who desire to leave did not specify a destination.

Nassib Ghobril, Byblos Bank’s chief economist noted: “The large percentage of Lebanese who would like to emigrate is alarming but, unfortunately, not surprising. Emigration did not stop with the end of the 1975-1990 conflict. But the reasons have shifted from security and political during the war years to economic and financial since the 1990s.  So the fact that the vast majority of Lebanese who want to emigrate cite work-related reasons is in line with past trends.”

“But the percentage of Lebanese who would like to emigrate has clearly increased from previous periods with the return of long-term security concerns. In addition, the deterioration of security conditions, ongoing political uncertainties and volatility of the last three years, and increasing linkages of Lebanon’s outlook with the Syrian crisis have cost the economy huge opportunities that include job creation,” the economist added.

“Also, the lack of any vision at the political level to improve Lebanon’s economic competitiveness, raise growth rates, and support job creation would lead to such results.”
The survey was conducted in 14 Arab countries through face-to-face interviews between July 2012 and March 2013 as part of the Arab Center for Research & Policy Studies’ 2012/13 Arab Opinion Index.
It covered a sample of 21,350 respondents in Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Mauritania, Palestine, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Tunisia, and Yemen.

Lebanon has undergone a net migration for over a century-and-half, reaching a peak during the civil war years and during the rebuilding afterwards. The “Lebanese Diaspora” has become enshrined in local ideology, with emigrants from Lebanon having settled all over the world.

It is common for the average Lebanese to recite a list of cousins, uncles, brother, sisters and friends, who live abroad — from Las Vegas and Rio to Lagos and Toronto.

The overall Lebanese diaspora is estimated at around 14 million persons. Or more than three times the 4.3 million person population of Lebanon itself. Resulting from this large-scale diaspora, remittances sent back family members in Lebanon were estimated at $7.5 billion in 2010 or about 18 percent of the Lebanese economy.

Whereas countries such as Ireland had a 10 year long run of the powerful Celtic Tiger economy, drawing thousands of Irish home, no such thing has happened in the Levant. For one there has been no economic surge nor is one expected in the near term.

Instead, there is continued impetus to move away.

Lebanon faces a burgeoning war next door in Syria; which in turn is causing increasing conflict in the Levant; the economy is collapsing, with HSBC projecting 0 percent GDP growth for the year; and for the last two years, GCC tourists have avoided the country like the plaque, decimating the tourism industry.

Each recent year less expats come to visit for the summer season, let alone considered getting married in Lebanon, according to tourism and wedding industry statistics.

One question the poll did not ask, was what do the 67 percent opting to stay — albeit those not “saying” they would like to leave — expect out of life in Beirut and Lebanon?

Ghobril noted that though the perception is that the “grass is always greener on the other side of the hill” and that there is a surplus of high paying employment “just waiting for Lebanese emigrants,” is far from the actual reality.

“For instance, the Eurozone is mired in a recession and unemployment rates are at unprecedented high levels; while the United States is trying to emerge from its worst economic downturn since the Great Recession,” the economist said.

“Also, most fresh graduates in Lebanon do not take the time to look for jobs in Lebanon and link any job opportunity in the private sector to political and sectarian connections, which is simply untrue. They write-off the local labor market, even before trying to find a job.”